May 2019 Q1

The number of clients who consulted Tsoo Consult within a period of three years were recorded as follows:

Required:
a) Assuming a 4 quarterly cycle, calculate the centred trend values for the data by moving average method.                  (4 marks)

b) Using (a) above and the multiplicative model, calculate the average seasonal variations.                                             (5 marks)

c) Using (b) above, calculate the adjusted average seasonal variations for the data.                                                          (5 marks)

d) Using the trend and the adjusted average seasonal variation, forecast the number of clients for Year 4 based on the multiplicative model.                                                                                                                                                           (6 marks)